Pending Home Sales Just Hit a Record Low—Here’s Why Sellers Should Care
On October 22, 2026, Redfin reported that U.S. pending home sales sank to the lowest level in records dating back to 2021. For the four weeks ending October 18, pending sales fell 1.9% week over week and 14.4% year over year—to just 281,749 seasonally adjusted contracts.
That is not a soft patch. It is a demand freeze. And for Maryland homeowners trying to sell—especially with repairs, timelines, or carrying costs—it changes the playbook.
What the Newest Numbers Actually Say
Redfin’s mid-October snapshot (four weeks ending Oct. 18, 2026) paints a clear picture:
| Metric | Latest reading | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Pending sales | 281,749 (−1.9% WoW, −14.4% YoY) | Lowest in Redfin’s records since 2021 |
| Median monthly payment | $2,796 at ~7.4% rates | Second-highest payment on record |
| Median sale price | $390,614 (+0.2% YoY) | Price growth has nearly stalled |
| Months of supply | 4.4 (up from 4.0) | Balanced territory; buyers have room to negotiate |
| Price cuts | 21.7% of listings | Up from 21% a year earlier |
| New listings | −1.4% WoW | Sellers are also pulling back |
| Active listings | +0.1% WoW / +2.1% YoY | Inventory still edges up even as new listings fall |
Redfin also noted that pending sales declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros for the second week in a row while rates stayed near 7.4%. That means the freeze is national—not just a Sun Belt story.
September Already Flashed the Warning Sign
Today’s Redfin print follows a brutal September reading from the National Association of REALTORS®: pending sales fell 7.3% month over month and 11.3% year over year, with declines in every region. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun tied the drop directly to fast-rising mortgage rates and said buyers and sellers may be “holding back until mortgage rates move favorably.”
Reuters coverage of that NAR release noted the Pending Home Sales Index tumbled to 66.0—the lowest level since the series began in 2001. CNBC called September a “deep freeze.”
Regional NAR detail from September:
- West: −9.2% MoM / −15.0% YoY
- South: −8.2% MoM / −12.0% YoY
- Midwest: −6.5% MoM / −8.7% YoY
- Northeast: −4.2% MoM / −9.4% YoY
Rates Are the Main Brake—and They Haven’t Let Up
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026—unchanged from the prior week and well above 6.27% a year earlier. The 15-year averaged 6.71%.
Daily trackers stay in the same neighborhood: WSJ Buy Side’s October 22 update showed 30-year rates holding near 7.37%, while Bankrate’s Maryland snapshot the same day listed advertised 30-year averages around 7.09% (lender quotes vary).
We covered the first big jump in our earlier post when rates hit 7.28%. The story now is persistence: rates stayed elevated long enough to push contract signings to record lows.
How Maryland Looks Inside the Freeze
Maryland is not immune—but it is not a carbon copy of the national chart either.
According to Realtor.com’s October 2026 Maryland market page, the state shows:
- Median listing price: about $425,000 (−3.96% YoY)
- Median sold price: about $435,000 (+1.16% YoY)
- Active listings: 29,224 (+9.31% YoY)
- Median days on market: 47 (+9.30% YoY)
- Sale-to-list ratio near 100%—a balanced market, not a fire-sale crash
Redfin’s Maryland data for September showed a $428,768 median sale price (+0.9% YoY), homes sold down 8.1%, inventory up 9.3%, and median days on market at 45 (up 5 days year over year).
In plain English: more Maryland homes are competing for fewer financed buyers, and those buyers are taking longer to commit. That lines up with what we wrote when the national Market Clock shifted toward buyers and when price cuts hit multi-year highs.
What Maryland Sellers Should Do When Contracts Dry Up
- Price for today’s payment, not last year’s comps. A buyer’s budget is crushed by 7%+ rates even if your assessed value looks strong—see our guide on why your SDAT assessment isn’t your sale price.
- Expect longer days on market and more negotiation. Concessions, inspection credits, and rate-buydown requests are common when pending sales stall.
- Don’t ignore holding costs. HOA dues, insurance, utilities, and taxes keep running while a listing sits—especially painful with an HOA lien or tax arrears.
- Consider a cash path if timing matters. A financed buyer who never clears underwriting helps no one. Selling as-is for cash can cut months of uncertainty.
Get a Cash Offer—or Earn $500 by Referring Someone Who Needs One
If your Maryland home needs to sell before the market thaws, request a free cash offer from Executive Pro Home Buyers. We buy houses as-is, with no agent commissions and a closing date you choose. Start on our homepage or contact page.
Know a neighbor, friend, or family member stuck with a listing that won’t go pending? Our $500 Refer & Earn program pays you when the referred sale closes. Review how we handle information in our Privacy Policy and program rules in our Terms & Conditions, then send them our way.
Sources: Redfin PR Newswire release (Oct. 22, 2026) and Redfin housing-market update (four weeks ending Oct. 18, 2026); NAR Pending Home Sales (Sept. 2026 / released Oct. 20, 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS (week of Oct. 15, 2026); WSJ Buy Side mortgage rates (Oct. 22, 2026); Bankrate Maryland rates (Oct. 22, 2026); Realtor.com Maryland market page (Oct. 2026); Redfin Maryland state market (Sept. 2026); Reuters and CNBC coverage of September pending sales; Inman analysis of Sept. 2026 pending sales and housing starts.